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Posted May 2009

Southeastern and southwestern Australia will be hardest hit by new weeds, according to climate change modelling undertaken by the CSIRO.

John Scott and co-workers have modelled the potential distribution of 41 sleeper/alert weeds (species that have naturalised but not spread widely) in Australia under various climate change scenarios to predict which species would be favoured.

Those posing a greatly expanded threat under climate change include karroo thorn (Acacia karroo), rosewood (Tipuana tipu), field horsetail (Equisetum arvense) and white weeping broom (Retama raetam).

Tropical species were found to have a greater capacity to migrate southwards than temperate species.

The research has led to an urgent recommendation was that a new list of sleeper weeds be prepared for northern Australia to replace those species that will be displaced southwards by climate change.

The CSIRO team also proposed that containment lines be established for species likely to spread under climate change.

References
Scott JK, Batchelor KL, Ota N, Yeoh PB. 2008. Modelling climate change on sleeper and alert weeds. Wembley, WA: CSIRO Entomology